C/2026 A1(MAPS)_6AC4721+Kreutz 彗星 4月

[peter]

https://hdr-astrophotography.com/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAP7t_9jbGNrA_u3_GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHliDs17uCr8olPvOuW-XaEZ7QH7Z2yHcsl0S45ocD5hussGCqVYhX1M3Sckw_aem_oedXk_kF1UkJi3qq-cnMHw

[peter]

https://starwalk.space/en/news/comet-c2026-a1-maps



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 C/2026 A1 (MAPS) 彗尾預測

Nicolas Lefaudeux 在其個人網站中新增了對 C/2026 A1 (MAPS) 的狀況預測及彗尾預測動畫。

https://hdr-astrophotography.com/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAP7t_9jbGNrA_u3_GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHliDs17uCr8olPvOuW-XaEZ7QH7Z2yHcsl0S45ocD5hussGCqVYhX1M3Sckw_aem_oedXk_kF1UkJi3qq-cnMHw

他指出， C/2026 A1 (MAPS) 在距離太陽 2 AU 處就被發現，不同不同於近期較小的同族彗星（如 C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy)），
顯示其核心體積可能較大。且現在（2026.02.13）彗星已經進入快速增亮階段，近日點前解體的機率越來越小。

同時，Lefaudeux 也給出了四種可能的演化劇本
（彗尾模擬動畫須至網站觀看，網址在留言）
 


劇本 1（過近日點前解體）：像 C/2012 S1 (ISON) 一樣消失，目前看來機率較低。

劇本 2（無頭彗星）：像 C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) ，過近日點後核心解體，只剩下明亮的彗尾。
 若 C/2026 A1 (MAPS) 持續增亮，其體積可能會超過此劇本的預期。

劇本 3（中型克魯茲彗星）：成功通過近日點。彗尾長度約 5-20 度，對天文愛好者來說很美，但亮度可能不足以引起大眾廣泛關注。

劇本 4（池谷-關級別的大彗星）：體積巨大，高活性通過近日點。可能在白天可見，彗尾長達 30 度且極亮。這是最理想的情況。
 

[peter]

more

[peter]

https://cobs.si/comet/2688/

[peter]

The MPC released a new orbit yesterday for C/2026 A1 (MAPS) in MPEC 2026-C98. Its period is now estimated at 1892 ± 168 years. Could it plausibly be a fragment from the first millennium AD?
https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K26/K26C98.html
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=C%2F2026%20A1

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10233200868708182&set=pcb.2720321854804926

[peter]

UPDATE

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10233200868708182&set=pcb.2720321854804926

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1367622415379231&set=a.419550426853106 

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=899795019461920&set=a.116668651107898

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=2363543467495805&set=pcb.2722278087942636 

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1HxJoJ6Grs/


劇本 1（過近日點前解體）：像 C/2012 S1 (ISON) 一樣消失，目前看來機率較低。

劇本 2（無頭彗星）：像 C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) ，過近日點後核心解體，只剩下明亮的彗尾。
 若 C/2026 A1 (MAPS) 持續增亮，其體積可能會超過此劇本的預期。

劇本 3（中型克魯茲彗星）：成功通過近日點。彗尾長度約 5-20 度，對天文愛好者來說很美，但亮度可能不足以引起大眾廣泛關注。
    => 可能這

劇本 4（池谷-關級別的大彗星）：體積巨大，高活性通過近日點。可能在白天可見，彗尾長達 30 度且極亮。這是最理想的情況。
 

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=25656506800716383&set=gm.2731672483669863&idorvanity=123943134442824

[peter]

https://astronomie.be/pieterjan.dekelver/Observations/2026/20260302_1904_CK26A010_M09_FINAL.jpg?fbclid=IwY2xjawQYofZleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFud3M0bEdoS2NsVG5FSHIyc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHmI0YrigoyZseI5zZYrSr5AP71NdlxGqpvA4FqwldGtSrtDLNAL-JEIYGF_T_aem_stsO5pX4iHV4a0QBYUWF1Q

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=26030201853297043&set=gm.2735335596636885&idorvanity=123943134442824

[peter]

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10236814638358506&set=a.10202599826169585

Nicolas Lefaudeux

Update on the magnitude of comet MAPS: The comet’s brightness has been increasing smoothly since last update. Comet MAPS appears to be a “medium Kreutz”, with both its absolute magnitude and rate of brightening intermediate between comets Ikeya-Seki and Lovejoy.
At this point, the outcome that seems most plausible is that the comet should survive perihelion, and be a very nice object for astronomers, but would probably not be bright enough to reach the “Great Comet” status. But remember that nothing will be certain until a few days after perihelion, as it is the dust released between ~6 hours and 3–4 days after perihelion that mostly determines the tail’s length and brightness.
This outcome corresponds to the "Scenario 3" of my simulations https://hdr-astrophotography.com/