C2012/S1 ISON 彗星最後發生?

[大瘋起嘻]

這我在facebook 上的分析，有錯誤麻煩指正一下

愛神(ISON) 彗星越來越亮了，大家好好的把握。依照星圖 (sky safari) 判斷11/27~28 凌晨太陽出來之前的那一刻，可能會在仰角很低的地方亮到不行 (希望如此)。但想看見她的芳蹤，可能從現在開始每天凌晨用雙筒望遠鏡找會比較實在，個人建議以18日為基準，以室女座的角宿一為參考 (角宿一這段時間凌晨位於東方的低空，一顆白色很亮的亮星)，18日以前往上找，以13日 4:30 為例大約距東邊兩個拳頭的高度可以找得到，隨著時間增加高度會越來越高。14日往下一下，15日再往下一些，逐日下降，27、28日如果爆量，可能肉眼就看得到了，但要找一個東邊完全沒有遮蔽的地方觀測，因為仰角非常非常低，離太陽很近也看沒多久，但如果如同期望，可能會看了永生難忘。29日如果有幸繞過太陽似乎有機會可以在黃昏看到她，但星圖看起來也不怎麼容易看到~~~

[peter]

 應該說  以13日 4:30 為例   當天仰角約兩個拳頭的高度,  因地球自轉,  時間晚點會角度更高,
 但是 隔一天彗星的仰角會比前一天同時間 更低
 越靠近日點角度越低 越難觀測, 加上月光影響    可能只有本週可看.

不過 應該建議看 R1.  不建議看 ison

[曹大貓咪]

29日如果有幸繞過太陽似乎有機會可以在黃昏看到她，但星圖看起來也不怎麼容易看到~~~

 嗯... 愛爽繞前繞過後還是都得在清晨的東方看她歐...

[大瘋起嘻]

應該說  以13日 4:30 為例   當天仰角約兩個拳頭的高度,  因地球自轉,  時間晚點會角度更高,
 但是 隔一天彗星的仰角會比前一天同時間 更低
 越靠近日點角度越低 越難觀測, 加上月光影響    可能只有本週可看.

不過 應該建議看 R1.  不建議看 ison

應該還是可以期待，到後面ison 會不會爆亮都很難講

[peter]

有國外同好說希望有人放大ISON 彗核 彗髮 部份 去看看是否 有分裂 

[gleeman]

前陣子L4距太陽剩近二十度左右時預報亮度也還算亮，不過大家就找到眼睛脫窗了。這次ISON在最亮的那幾天亮度變化是很快的，差一兩天就降很多了，不要低估暮曙光的影響。真的需要爆亮。不過要爆亮應該現在就該爆了吧？

[peter]

目前說法
FROM 
http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.2653

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) shows strange photometric behavior compared to many past comets. Shortly after its discovery, majority of astronomers expected its surviving until perihelion passage. Unprecedented evolution of its photometric parameters nearly 2 AU from Sun, pushed this comet under survival line defined by formula of John. E. Bortle, where ~70% comets in his analysis disintegrated. However comparison with photometric behavior of group of past disintegrated comets showing large differences and ISON doesn't seems to be typical member of this group. In other hand, compared to surviving, dynamically new comets which were observed far away from Sun and survived its perihelion passage, ISON showing peculiar gradual decrease of its activity, probably caused by exhaustion of active fractions of its nucleus.

[peter]

ISON  和其他彗星

GOTO HERE
http://familystar.org.tw/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=45&topic=20780.0

[peter]

肉眼可看到

FROM

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/comets-ml/message/22328

RE: TRAPPIST : ISON outburst !    
Posted By:    

    biver_nicolas
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   Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:12 pm  |
   

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ISON is visible to the Naked Eye!!

Just 40min ago before clouds came in again (it snowed here yesterdy evening), I saw ISON with naked eye and adverted vision (good dark sky from Pico Veleta, SQM=21.14 to 20.9 in the zodiacal light).
It is about m1=6.3 to 6.5, estimated from naked eye and binculars (nearly starlike).
I saw it quickly in the Celestron 8, very condensed and hard to make out a structure, but the beginning of the tail does not look (yet) much brighter than the days before.
(I estimated ISON to m1=7.4 yesterday 13.22-Nov and 8.1 on the 12.2-Nov.)
Nicolas

 

[peter]

http://www.fallofathousandsuns.com/path-of-comet-ison.html

FROM
http://www.solarsystemscope.com/ison/

[peter]

目前 ISON 噴了

http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/cometspage/OUTBURST.html



 On November 13th 06:35 UT, Emmanuel Jehin from the Trappist telescope in Chile reported that the water production rate had increased by a factor of x2 in 24 hours.   The value they were measuring was 2.0x10^28 molecules/s at 10.000 km.   They suspected that an outburst was going on.  We have plotted this value in our water production rate plot and you can see the result in Figure 1.

[peter]

MORE

Re: [comets-ml] An alternative view an ISON's fate by Z. Sekanina    
Posted By:    

    walcom77
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   Thu Nov 14, 2013 4:11 pm  |
   

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Hi All

Sekanina's paper has been updated:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.1980v6.pdf

It now contains a STATUS UPDATE REPORT #4 (November 12, 2013).

"This status update report, the last of the series, covers the period
of time from November 2, the end date of report #3, to November 10."


PDF paper 看到

[peter]

MORE

http://www.starlab.ru/showpost.php?p=464561&postcount=1

[peter]

C/2012 S1 (ISON):
2013 Nov. 14.22 UT: m1=6.1, Dia.=3', DC=8,
Tail: 0.7 deg. in PA 300 deg, 10x50B.


2013 11 14.427(round to 14.43): m1= 5.8, Coma dia.= 1.5', DC= 8
Altitude around 17° at the beginning of the observation.

亮度開始上昇 ...

http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/cometspage/OUTBURST.html

[大瘋起嘻]

呼！太令人期待了

但天氣實在不配合